It was tough going in the trenches at Ascot on Wednesday afternoon, with the general consensus that after a day firmly in the punters’ favour on Tuesday it was very much an equaliser for the layers, what with both So You Think (4/11) and Shumoos (6/5) well backed shorties that bit the dust.
Granted you have to take the bookies PR reps claims of poverty with enough salt to fill a mine, but Tuesday certainly was a fillip for those investing their hard earned, and scores now stand at one a-piece.
Thursday looks relatively complicated as well, but I’ll kick off with just the 21 juveniles so sift through in the opening Norfolk Stakes at 2.30pm, live on BBC1.
The one everyone will be craning their necks to get a good look at in the paddock is Everyday Dave, clearly a very fast young horse who comes here under the tutelage of top American trainer Wesley Ward.
Unbeaten after wins in America and France he has a good draw in 16, and must hold a major shout.
Plenty of you will recall Ward came calling at Royal Ascot back in 2009, first winning the Windsor Castle Stakes with 33/1 shot Strike The Tiger, then openly admitting he had a much faster filly for the Queen Mary in the guise of Jealous Again.
Jealousy, quickly followed by a minor bout of depression, quickly followed by violence would probably have been the reaction for those who scoffed at his claims: backed in from 16/1 into 13/2 she won by just the five lengths, over five furlongs, at Royal Ascot!!
If there is one to send the Americans home empty handed my money is on one of the home team – Richard Hannon’s Crown Dependency, a really exciting Acclamation colt who did regular readers of this column a big favour when winning his maiden over six furlongs at Goodwood during Punchestown/Chester week.
Richard Hughes had to give him a bit of help that day, but when he pushed the button there was plenty in the tank, and he was eased towards the finish for an easy debut victory.
Encouragingly, the third horse that day Airborne Again (also Richard Hannon) then went out and franked the form with victory at Salisbury a week later.
My only real concern is his draw, lowest of all in stall one.
High numbers appear to have been in vogue on days one and two, but all of that can change in the blink of an eye, and at 15/2 with either of Coral or Paddy Power I do think there’s value to be had there each way.
Next up, I’m expecting the Ribblesdale (3.05pm) to go to Ireland, with Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning teaming up as ever with Sunday’s Group 3 Cork winner Banimpire, a Holy Roman Emperor filly who probably ought to be a sprinter or at best a miler, but there’s stamina on the dam side and she’s actually a strong galloping sort at up to a mile and a half.
Three times a Group 3 winner already this calendar year, she bounced back from a fifth in the Irish Guineas (when sent off just 9/1) with a win over the Ribblesdale trip just four days ago in the Noblesse Stakes.
If that hasn’t taken the edge off her she’s the one they all have to beat.
The big race is the Gold Cup at 3.45pm, and this is a real teaser for backers of either the favourite Fame And Glory or next in Duncan, with neither tested at the extreme two and a half mile trip.
Will they stay? Who knows, though both have the class in abundance: Fame And Glory was second Sea The Stars’ Derby, fifth in the Arc last season, plus is a former Coronation Cup winner, while Duncan netted the Yorkshire Cup on his reappearance.
The problem is, if you’re entertaining the idea of getting fired in either of them at relatively short odds (2/1 and 6/1), what happens if the petrol light is flickering on empty and you’ve done your cash after two miles?
My idea is to dip in at a far bigger price with a small each way bet on Barry Hills’ Tastahil, a 20/1 poke with Ladbrokes, with the Magic Sign making a decent concession at a third of the odds a place.
To my mind the key with Tastahil is to let him kick on and race prominently.
They disappointed him when holding him up in this race a year ago, and consequently he could never land a blow.
Fair enough he doesn’t win too often, but he did take the Group 3 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket last backend.
His one run so far this year was a Herculean second off top weight to Overturn over two and a quarter miles in the Chester Cup, and if he can get a couple of the fancied runners on the stretch he might not be such a big price in-running as they turn for home!
The balance of risk versus reward suggests we’ve got a bit in our favour, backing a guaranteed stayer at such a big price.
Finally, a word on annual Royal Ascot attendee Lord Culcheth, an acquaintance of mine with a loyal following…..thanks to MichaelS for his tweet, which was very much to the point in saying: “cheers for the tips, but pls p’vide updated info on Lord Culcheth. Is he at Ascot?”
Good news: I’m sure you’ll all sleep much sounder in your beds tonight, safe in the knowledge that he’s heading to the Berkshire venue on Saturday, and I’ll be delighted to keep you posted on his whereabouts.
Good luck!
Thursday’s best bets at Royal Ascot:
2.30 – Norfolk Stakes – 10 Crown Dependency (each way) @ 15/2 (Coral or Paddy Power)
3.05 – Ribblesdale Stakes – 2 Banimpire (win) @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes or William Hill)
3.45 – Gold Cup – 11 Tastahil (each way) @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
